Tyson E. Sam's South Florida Housing Market Outlook
The Short Answer
By months of inventory, single-family homes are a seller's market in 1 county and balanced in 5 counties, while condos and townhomes are a buyer's market in all 6 counties (BeachesMLS, September 23, 2026). For houses in most counties, neither side holds much leverage, so price and condition decide; for condos and townhomes, buyers hold the leverage. The figures below update daily, and my read of what they mean for buyers and sellers follows.
Where Each County Stands Today
Medians for the last 90 days of closed sales and months of inventory, from BeachesMLS, recalculated September 23, 2026. Each county links to its full BreakThru Realty Research report with twelve months of trends. Across the counties, single-family homes are a seller's market in 1 county and balanced in 5 counties and condos and townhomes are a buyer's market in all 6 counties.
- Miami-Dade County: Single-family median $695,000 (+5.3% on a year ago), 5.2 months of inventory, a balanced market; condos and townhomes $416,495 (+2%), 12.7 months, a buyer's market.
- Broward County: Single-family median $655,000 (+3.3% on a year ago), 4.2 months of inventory, a balanced market; condos and townhomes $244,950 (-5.4%), 10.8 months, a buyer's market.
- Palm Beach County: Single-family median $730,000 (+10.6% on a year ago), 3.6 months of inventory, a seller's market; condos and townhomes $307,750 (+6.1%), 7 months, a buyer's market.
- Martin County: Single-family median $658,000 (+6.3% on a year ago), 4 months of inventory, a balanced market; condos and townhomes $257,650 (+14.5%), 7.3 months, a buyer's market.
- St. Lucie County: Single-family median $407,900 (-0.3% on a year ago), 5.2 months of inventory, a balanced market; condos and townhomes $309,450 (+10.5%), 7.7 months, a buyer's market.
- Indian River County: Single-family median $384,000 (-4% on a year ago), 5.2 months of inventory, a balanced market; condos and townhomes $160,000 (0%), 8.2 months, a buyer's market.
What It Means If You Are Selling
If you are selling a house, neither side holds much leverage, so price and condition decide in most counties. Buyers will pay what the closed sales support for a home in good condition, and very little for what they think needs work.
If you are selling a condo or townhome, buyers hold the leverage. You are competing with more listings for fewer buyers, so the price, the condition and the building's paperwork all have to be right from the first day.
What It Means If You Are Buying
Condo buyers: buyers hold the leverage. That is room to negotiate price and credits, but only in a building whose milestone inspection, reserve study and budget hold up. The discount on a unit in a building with a large special assessment is usually the assessment.
House buyers: neither side holds much leverage, so price and condition decide. Offer from the closed sales, not the asking price, and let the inspection decide the rest.
How I Read Months of Inventory
Months of inventory is the number of homes for sale divided by the number that sell in a month: how long today's supply would last if nothing new came on the market. It is the best single measure of who holds the leverage, which is why every BreakThru Realty report uses it with the same thresholds.
A single number hides a lot, though. A county at five months can have waterfront homes selling in weeks and older condos sitting for most of a year. That is why the reports split single-family homes from condos and townhomes, and why the city reports and the price-range pages matter as much as the county headline.
Insurance Is Part of the Price Now
In South Florida, what a home costs to insure has become part of what it is worth. Buyers' insurers look hardest at the roof, the electrical panel, the plumbing and the air conditioning, and give credits for impact windows, shutters and roof straps. A house with a newer roof and wind-mitigation features can cost far less to insure than the same house without them, and buyers price that difference in. Sellers who document those features up front give buyers a reason to pay for them.
Condos After Florida's Safety Laws
Since 2022, Florida has required milestone structural inspections for condominium buildings three stories and taller once they reach a certain age, structural integrity reserve studies, and fully funded reserves for structural items. The rules make buildings safer and, in many older buildings, have meant higher dues and special assessments. In my read, that is a large part of why condo inventory runs higher than single-family inventory across the region. For buyers the answer is not to avoid condos but to read each building's documents before making an offer.
The Season Still Matters
Seasonal residents and many relocating buyers are here from roughly December to April, and showing activity follows them. Summer and hurricane season, June through November, are quieter, and closings can slip for a few days when a named storm stops insurers from writing new policies. None of that changes what a home is worth, but it changes how many buyers see it in a given month.
What Would Change My Read
An outlook is only as good as the signals behind it. These are the ones I watch: months of inventory crossing the four- and six-month lines in either segment; days on market lengthening or shortening for several months in a row; how many listings are cutting their price; and the change in the median sale price against the same period a year earlier. The county reports carry all of them, and the monthly South Florida Housing Market Report freezes them each month so the changes can be checked later.